Like every casino oriented game, Blackjack is a game of odds, dependent on the player's choices, and the house edge advantage. By understand the house edge.

Like every casino oriented game, Blackjack is a game of odds, dependent on the player’s choices, and the house edge advantage. By understand the house edge, you’ll see why casinos are so happy to accept your blackjack wages, no matter the size. If you fully grasp the odds of each situation in blackjack, you can take advantage of probable outcomes and effectively lower the house edge.

The Casino’s Advantage

The casino always has the upper hand in blackjack, as it does in every game it presents. First of all, the dealer is required to play in hand in a specific manner, hitting any hand of 16 or below, and standing on any hand of 17 or above. The dealer must follow these rules because the casino has already done the math, and knows very well that it has a better chance of winning in most situations by following this pattern.

Another advantage the casino has over the player is that the dealer always acts last. The player is given an opportunity to bust his own hand before the dealer ever makes a move, resulting in plenty of wins for the house without even needing the odds to be on their side.

When you combine both of these aspects, you end up with a total house edge of 7-8% in blackjack. Since there are various ways to play the game – European Blackjack, Vegas Strip Blackjack, Atlantic City Blackjack, etc – we can’t give you an exact number, but 7-8% about covers them all.

• Guide to blackjack odds & probability. Includes different blackjack games with the best and worst odds, best strategies to help reduce the house edge.
• If you are a wizard behind the calculator, bring it into reading this article as we breakdown some of the scenarios you are bound to face playing a game of Blackjack.

The Player’s Advantage

Did you know that using proper blackjack strategies will actually allow you to decrease the casino’s house edge to bare minimum? Memorizing and sticking to a Blackjack Strategy Chart can drop the house edge to about 3%. Toss in a basic card counting strategy and you’re down to around 0.5%. Successfully applying an advanced card counting strategy can actually turns the odds into your favor, eliminating the house edge altogether.

Bust Out Probabilities

Thus far, we’ve covered only the house edge odds. Now it’s time to teach you the odds of busting a hand with any given total. By knowing your odds of busting, you can optimize your game play to the fullest. The following chart will show your odds of busting when hitting a specific total card value.

Hand Total % Odds of Busting
11 or below 0%
12 31%
13 39%
14 56%
15 585
16 62%
17 69%
18 77%
19 85%
20 92%
21 100%

Starting Hand Odds

Blackjack starts every player out with two cards. In this next section, we’ll show you the probabilities of starting out with different types of hands. Pay special attention to the last two statistics; Standing Hands of 17+ (hands you would automatically Stand on) and Natural Blackjack Hands. These combined make up your best chances of winning a hand without having to make any decisions.

Odds Of Getting Blackjack In 8 Deck Shoe

Starting Hands % Odds of Dealing
No Bust Hand 26.5%
Standing Hand (17+) 38.7%
Decision Hand (2-16) 30%
Natural Blackjack (21) 4.8%
TOTAL 100%

Odds of Dealer Busting

Next, we’re going to look at the percentage odds of the dealer’s hand busting, according to the dealer’s face-up card. These blackjack odds will give you a better idea of how to react when faced with a decision hand. Note that when the dealer’s face-up card is a 5, he has the highest odds of busting out.

Dealer’s Card Dealer’s Chance of Busting
A 11.65%
10/Face Card 21.43%
9 23.34%
8 23.6%
7 25.99%
6 42.08%
5 42.89%
4 40.28%
3 37.56%
2 35.30%

Learning blackjack odds is not something you can expect to get down pat in a single day, but by studying these charts and slowly committing these blackjack odds to memory – and combining them with proven blackjack strategies – you can seriously sway the house edge pendulum into your own favor.

Blackjack odds are percentage figures which represent your probability of losing or winning a hand. They can also represent the house edge or their profit margins as well. Usually probability odds don't mean much on the short term, but they clearly average out in the long term and this is why the casinos always win over the long term.

We decided to make a few tables and charts of the most common blackjack probability odds for various scenarios and situations found while playing blackjack. The most important odds percentage represents the dealer's edge in the game. This is the long term advantage that they have which will eventually take your money away. Blackjack is actually one of the most popular games in the casino and also has some of the lowest odds of all the casino games, except casino craps of course. Generally their edge ranges from 1% to 15% depending on what variation of blackjack you are playing.

How to Beat the Casino House Odds

There is one feature that makes blackjack more desirable than any other casino game. There is actually a way to beat the house edge by increasing your odds. In fact, your probability odds in blackjack can be increase to the point where you would actually be making the profit in the long term, essentially turning the casino into a personal ATM. This practice is known as card counting and casinos don't like this because they know they will be losing money.

Before you start card counting, you should learn 'blackjack basic strategy', which is the mathematically correct way to play every move in blackjack to get the best odds. This can lower the house edge to less than 1 percent. When that percentage goes to a negative number such as -1%, then it is you who has the edge over the casino. This is when you complement basic strategy with card counting to get the highest efficiencies.

Odds vs. Dealer Up Card

The first odds chart shows what kind of advantage the player has vs. the dealer based on what his up card is showing. The first column in the chart is what card the dealer has showing after the cards have been dealt. The second column of the table shows the dealer's probability of going bust based on each card. The last column shows the advantage the player has and the probability of winning based on the basic strategy theory. As you can see, the dealer has about a 43% chance of going bust when he has a 5 showing as an up card. At the same time, the player has about 23% advantage as well. Notice that the player advantage goes negative when the 10 cards and ace start showing up. This means the player is more likely to lose.

Blackjack odds of Busting While Taking a Hit

This chart shows the probabilities of going bust after taking a hit. Busting means that your card total would go over 21 points and would be a hard total as well. The highest score you can get when being initially dealt two cards is 21 points so you can never go bust. This means if you took a hit on a hard 21, you would have a 100% probablity of going bust, which is common sense. Also, if you have 11 points or less, it is impossible to go over 21 points on the next hit and your odds of going bust would be 0 percent.

House Advantage with Multiple Number of Decks

The number of 52 card decks in a game of blackjack influences the house edge. In some cases, the odds increase in favor of the casino when more decks are used. The advantage edge can be as much as 1% towards the casino and this is a big number in terms of odds over the long term. As you can see here, a single deck of card gives the lowest edge for the casino and gives the player better odds. Multiple decks such as eight decks increases the house edge almost 18 times more than it would for the single deck!

Two Card Frequency Odds

The next odds table deals with the first two cards being dealt or the 2 card frequency odds. Every player is dealt two cards at the beginning of a round of blackjack so this chart tells you the percentage of getting different categories of hands. A natural blackjack is only 4.8%, which essentially is an ace dealt with a ten card straight off the initial deal. Normally the odds are 3 to 2 and you would win $3 for every $2 wagered. It's a small percentage but it's the most desirable hand to get. The lowest hand you can get is two points (two aces). This is part of the decision hands group where players are usually dealt soft hands and can make decisions without going bust. This group is the most common.

The other category is the hard standing hands. These hands are somewhat desirable because of the high scores likely to beat the dealer. These are the second most frequent two card blackjack hands. Finally there is a no bust two card hand. No bust means any two card hand that won't bust on the next hit, such as any soft hand or hard hand that is 11 points or less.

Probability Edge for Each Card Removed from Deck

The next table shows how much your odds improve after when certain cards have been dealt and removed from the deck. Certain cards taken out of the deck and increase or decrease your blackjack odds percentage and the house edge.

This is very important for card counting. If you want the absolute perfect odds in card counting, you have to acount for each small change in the odds whenever a card is dealt. As you can see from the table, when small cards are taken out of play, the odds increase in your favor overall. This is a paramount property of card counting. The opposite happens when large cards are dealt. Your odds begin to decrease. When you are counting cards, you will notice your count decreasing when large cards are dealt.

Odds Of Winning Blackjack With Basic Strategy

You can imagine how complicated it would be to be adding these numbers in your head while card counting at the same time. If your mind was a computer, it would be easier to keep track of the percentage. Some people can do this, and this is the way to become a perfect card counter! It is easier to keep track of the odds when playing with a single blackjack deck. For example, when five cards are seen on the table, they offer a 0.67% increase in your advantage. In fact, when a lot of fives are used up, your odds will be much higher than if any of the other low cards were used up, even the six point cards. Also, these effects are cumulative so you always need to keep track of the odds after every card is dealt. This data is actually quite amazing!

Dealer Final Hand Probability Odds

This next table shows the odds of what the dealer's final hand will be. Usually in blackjack, the dealer must hit on 16 and stand on 17. These rules are slightly different for other variations of twenty-one. So generally, the odds of the dealer's final score being 16 are 0% because he must hit. This table will show the probability of the dealer busting or getting a non-bust hand as well as natural blackjacks.

Odds Of Getting Blackjack

Odds Of Getting Blackjack Single Deck