1. March Madness Betting Strategy
2. Vegas March Madness Betting Strategy Games
3. March Madness Betting Tips

March Madness Betting Strategy: After the Super Bowl, the NCAA tournament is the next most-bet on sporting event in the U.S. The tournament’s games draw some of the highest ratings of all sporting events in the country. As a result, there is plenty of betting action on both sides. Here are a few things to think about when placing bets on March Madness games or building a bracket.

The 2020-21 NCAA college basketball season tipped off on Nov. 25. That began a four-and-a-half month journey that will culminate with the 2021 Final Four. This year’s March Madness tournament will take place entirely in the state of Indiana due to COVID-19 precautions.

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• Betting on March Madness in Vegas offers a unique and exciting experience that can’t be found by betting online. The betting options in land-based sportsbooks are the same, but the excitement level increases when betting on March Madness from a casino or sports betting lounge with the action on a big screen.
• March Madness is just around the corner. The First Four play-in games begin on Tuesday, March 17. The excitement of the tournament then officially commences on Thursday, March 19 with the start of.
• March Madness is a sports phenomenon that’s impossible to replicate anywhere else. The upsets, the dramatic storylines, and win-or-go-home format gives fans the ultimate entertainment experience. For sports bettors, it provides the opportunity to significantly grow, or drain, their bankroll in just a few short weeks of action.

Last season, the NCAA Tournament was canceled. It had survived World War II, Black Monday, and half a dozen virus outbreaks; but for the first time since 1939, the NCAA was without a true champion.

The cancelation of March Madness was not only a major blow to TV viewership and ticket sales, but it erased the biggest sports betting event of the year. The American Gambling Association (AGA) reported that $8.5 billion was bet on the 2019 March Madness tournament. According to Legal Sports Report, sports gambling in the US jumped an average of 6.8% through the beginning of 2020 following a swath of passed legislation decriminalizing sports gambling. Based on those numbers, it can be projected that the cancelation of the NCAA Tournament lost nearly $9.1 billion in bets.

With the last NCAA tournament game having taken place nearly two years ago, anticipation is huge for this year’s March Madness tourney. Here is a look at the National Title odds with the start of the Big Dance just a couple of weeks away.

March Madness futures odds

Operators will undoubtedly have a generous array of wagering options on each March Madness game, including moneyline bets, point-spread bets, over/under bets, parlay bets, prop bets, teasers and in-play bets.

Those wagering options will be made available soon. However, here are current futures odds for the top projected tournament participants in the 2020-21 season. Gonzaga was the top favorite entering the 2020-21 season at FanDuel Sportsbook with odds of +700. The Bulldogs remain the favorites with current odds of +250 to win it all at FD.

Here is a look at March Madness odds for 2021.

To view more NCAA national title odds, go to DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and/or BetMGM.

NCAA title odds: Futures report (March 8)

Baylor had been the co-favorite with Gonzaga at several books in the past few weeks but the Bears’ Feb. 27 loss at Kansas allowed Gonzaga to occupy the top spot at sportsbooks’ odds boards.

The Favorites

Gonzaga (+250): Gonzaga’s run over the past decade-plus has been remarkable. They haven’t lost double-digit games in a season since 2010-11 and are 24-0 this season thus far. They lead the nation in scoring (92.9 points per game; second place, Baylor) and scoring margin (+23.5 points per game). They’re also tops in field goal attempts per game and field goal percentage.

Baylor (+275): The Bears are making a difficult schedule look easy. They secured the regular season Big 12 championship after a year where the conference was at its best – fielding two top-10 teams and seven ranked teams. Baylor is second in points scored per game (85.3), first in 3-point percentage, and sixth in 3-point makes. They’re almost a lock for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Next Group

Michigan (+450): The Wolverines dropped a pair of big games down the stretch, pushing their final regular season record to 19-3. While those losses might raise a red flag to bettors, trends say that may not be a bad thing. Indiana is the last team to go completely undefeated and win the NCAA Tournament (back in the late 1970s) and just one team since 2000 has won the NCAA Tournament with less than three losses (2012 Kentucky). Michigan is still a team built to win in March.

Illinois (+900): The Illini have gone through the complete cycle – unknowns to favorites, back again, and back again. Kofi Cockburn is one of the most elite players in the country amid a resurgence of talented big men, leading the team with 9.9 rebounds. Ayo Dosunmu is a top-scorer in the nation, too, with 21 points scored per game. A dominant win over Michigan in the final few games turned heads and might provide the fuel Illinois needs to make a tournament run.

Alabama (+1300): The Tide are top-five in 3-point shooting this year, and the philosophy of throwing up as many 3s as possible seems to be working out. Three straight wins to close out the year secured them the SEC regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament. Some might be worried about Alabama’s scoring defense, but their high-tempo offense naturally leads to opposing teams scoring more. They’re solid in most defensive metrics.

The Longshots

Ohio State (+1500): A loaded Big Ten saw an 18-8 Ohio State team land just fifth in the regular season race. A concerning mark was the Buckeyes’ three-game losing streak to close out the year that included to arch-rival Michigan, top-five Iowa, and a red-hot Michigan State team. While they have the talent to make a run at the Final Four, Ohio State could also be on first-round upset alert if they don’t find their groove in the Big Ten tournament.

Iowa (+1500): Contrary to Ohio State, Luka Garza and the Iowa Hawkeyes finished on a three-game winning streak highlighted by ranked wins over the Buckeyes and Wisconsin. They’re a dangerous team capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Iowa hit triple digits four times this season. They’ve cleaned up their scoring defense and are ready to make a March run. Which region and matchups they’re dealt, though, will make a real difference in Iowa’s chances.

March Madness betting sites

How the NCAA Tournament works

March Madness is a 68-team, single-elimination tournament that annually crowns college basketball’s NCAA Division 1 men’s national champion.

The event is aptly named, considering it features a frenetic 67 games over a 19-day period. The participating schools are announced on “Selection Sunday”, along with the exact seeding and brackets.

The annual college basketball rite of spring is sports betting’s most prolific multi-day event. Below you’ll find the current betting odds for the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, along with key tournament details and betting strategy to help you during the month-long madness.

The first 32 teams to gain entry into the tournament do so automatically by winning their conferences. The remaining 36 slots are filled by “at-large” teams. A 10-member selection committee consisting of athletic directors and conference commissioners undergoes an arduous and multi-layered process to determine the 36 at-large teams and subsequently finalize seeding and brackets.

This year, the committee will employ the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) as its primary sorting method for determining at-large entrants. The NET replaces the RPI (Rating Percentage Index), which had been utilized since 1981.

The NET utilizes the following metrics:

• Game results
• Strength of schedule
• Game location
• Scoring margin
• Offensive and defensive efficiency
• Quality of wins and losses

The NCAA has a detailed, step-by-step breakdown of seeding and bracket protocol on this page within its website.

March Madness betting history

The first NCAA basketball tournament took place in 1939 in Evanston, Illinois. Since then, 36 teams have won it all and five teams have won the tournament at least five times (Indiana, Duke, UNC, Kentucky, UCLA). Since seeding began in 1979, number-one seeds have won the tournament 24 times and have accounted for almost 49% of all championship appearances. Just three times has a team seeded lower than four won the title, and no team seeded below eighth has won, nor made a championship appearance.

Since betting lines were released for NCAA tournament games in 1985, underdogs have covered 44% of the time, winning outright 29% of the time. Games have gone under the total in 56% of games. Since 2010, games have gone under the total in 70% of games and favorites have covered in seven out of ten games. Three teams have won more than one championship since 2010 (Duke, UConn, Villanova), but none have won back-to-back titles (despite Butler & UNC appearing in back-to-back title games).

Since 2000, the top overall seed has made the championship game just four times but won the game three of those times (75%). In total, top overall seeds in the tournament have comprised of just 8% of the total Final Four teams (missed 13 out of 20 years). Besides 1-seeds, 2-seeds have the most championship appearances since 2000 (7 times), followed by 3-seeds (6 times), and 5- and 8-seeds (2).

Just eight percent (52/640) of all Sweet 16 teams have been seeded 11 or lower, and only 2.8% of teams in the Elite Eight were seeded 11 or lower. Four 11 seeds advanced to the Final Four (Loyola Chicago, 2018; VCU, 2011; George Mason, 2006; LSU, 1986). UMBC is the only 16-seed to upset a 1-seed in the tournament’s history (2018), and just eight 15-seeds have prevailed (5%). In 2015, two 15-seeds upset 2-seeds (25% of all such upsets) and two 14-seeds upset 3-seeds.

Using historical data when filling out brackets and betting March Madness, err caution; stats should be used in the long-run but when choosing individual games, be sure to study matchup statistics. The most important thing to remember, though, is this is March Madness, and anything can (and will) happen.

Tournament betting strategies

The historical ATS data for each team in tournament play is just one of countless data points that can constitute March Madness betting research. Other factors that can hold considerable relevance include:

• A team’s late-season performances, including in their conference tournament
• Key injuries
• A team’s defensive proficiency, as this typically has more carryover into tournament play than a high-powered offense
• “Fading the public” when the line appears to be significantly affected by a team’s popularity, as opposed to actual recent performance
• Examining various tournament-specific historical trends, such as how high-seeded mid-majors have done in each round in terms of straight-up wins and losses.

March Madness Betting Strategy

Another overarching data set that could prove highly valuable is the performance of each seed in each round versus the spread. Courtesy of BoydsBets.com, below is an overview of historical first-round performance by seeds 1-16 against the number:

Where can you legally wager on March Madness this year?

Bettors physically located within the following states will be able to place a legal sports wager on March Madness games:

• New Hampshire
  

Then, there will be a flurry of sports betting legalization efforts unfolding at statehouses around the country during 2020 legislative sessions. Thus, hundreds of thousands of potential new bettors are expected to be part of the fun when the 2021 version of March Madness rolls around.

Based on recent progress and momentum, many states appear to have at least a fighting chance of implementing legalized sports betting in time for next year’s tournament.

Vegas March Madness Betting Strategy Games

It is NCAA Tournament betting time! March Madness is here and every sports bettor wants a piece of the action. Things happen at a fast and furious pace this time of the year and it is important to go into March Madness with a solid plan. Planning and preparation are everything and there are a variety of NCAA Tournament betting strategies that can help gamblers show a profit betting on college basketball this time of the year.

Here are five strong NCAA Tournament betting strategies from our team of top college basketball handicappers:

Robert Ferringo: 'Momentum is absolutely crucial in March. You never want to bet against a hot team in the NCAA Tournament. But you also don't want to be shy about riding a team that is on fire at the window, especially if they are one of the best teams in the country. The public loves betting underdogs this time of the year. But the teams that have won national championships and dominated this time of the year have also been absolutely devastating at the window during March Madness. Over the last four years the eventual national champions are a combined 24-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. The teams that have cut down the nets have combined to go 32-4 ATS the last six years, 57-9 ATS the last 11 years and an astounding 80-16 ATS in NCAA Tournament games the past 16 seasons. When you think you've tabbed the eventual title team go to the well until the well is dry.'

March Madness Betting Tips

Doug Upstone: The very first aspect I track is how a team has played the last month. If a club is 3-4 and lost their first game in their conference tournament and is facing an opponent who was 7-1, was second in their league and won the conference tournament, that has my attention in the first game for both teams. Always look closely at 5 vs 12 matchups. The five-seed is nearly always is moving down, while a 12-seed is a conference champion. In the first weekend games, look for 10-seeds to cover more often than 7-seeds against 2-seeds, as they can be taken more lightly. Also, look for underdogs in the 7-11 point range. Once you get to the Sweet 16, identify teams that have an NBA quality big man, NBA quality point guard and team(s) that had a 10 or more game winning streak, as those are profiles of teams most likely to keep winning and covering spreads.

Alan Harris “Target a few of the smaller conferences out there and really get to know the players, the coaches and their tendencies. Read as much as you can on a daily basis on these schools. Twitter and the internet are your two best friends when it comes to college hoops. Find out who the beat writers are and read everything that they put out. A small tidbit about the sixth man for Radford or Elon having the flu the last few days could determine a winning or losing bet for you.”

Indian Cowboy: 'Let the line speak to you. Ever look at a line and think, ‘Why in the world is this good team getting nearly double-digits against this other very good team?’ Or, ‘Wow, the oddsmakers are crazy giving all these free points with this good team and this must be a mistake?’ Let it be known: The oddsmakers and books simply never give free points. So, take a moment and consider why is this team favored over this other team by so much if there are no new injuries to speak of.”

Allen Eastman: “A lot of square public bettors start betting on college basketball just for the NCAA Tournament. That means there is a lot more public money in the market. But pay attention to the line movements and not the hype of which team the public is betting and who all the commentators and analysts are predicting to win. Most of the upsets that happen in the NCAA Tournament are ones that people don’t see coming. And most of the upsets that everyone is predicting never happen. Pay attention to the line movements. Big sharp bettors will move lines. Not public action. One of the most important NCAA Tournament strategies is not getting carried away and not just following along with what everyone else in the betting public thinks the smart play is or thinks is going to happen. Don’t be afraid to take some chances on some underdogs. But also don’t try to predict every single one that is going to happen.”

If you would like more insight as to what these 5 handicappers do daily for their clients you can get a $60 no obligation free trial of their premium member picks here.

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